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FAW Championship · Wales
Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Denbigh Town host Gresford Athletic in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Denbigh Town had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 21. Gresford Athletic had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Denbigh Town's last 10 and 3 of Gresford Athletic's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Denbigh Town averaged 1.57 goals scored and 2.57 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Gresford Athletic averaged 0.43 scored and 2.14 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.02 goals from Denbigh Town and 0.91 from Gresford Athletic. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 15%, against 64%, 20% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Denbigh Town (green) and Gresford Athletic (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denbigh Town | LWLLW | 1.50 | 2.10 | 60% | 60% |
| Gresford Athletic | LWWDL | 0.60 | 2.20 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.26 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Denbigh Town Win | 65% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.52 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 53% | 1.73 |
| Denbigh Town HT & FT | 45% | 2.05 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FAW Championship matches that day
- Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cardiff Draconians · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals - llanelli AFC vs Afan Lido · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Newport City vs Pontypridd Town · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.46