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FAW Championship · Wales
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cardiff Draconians prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Trethomas Bluebirds host Cardiff Draconians in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Trethomas Bluebirds had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 23. Cardiff Draconians had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Trethomas Bluebirds's last 10 and 8 of Cardiff Draconians's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Trethomas Bluebirds averaged 1.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Cardiff Draconians averaged 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.71 goals from Trethomas Bluebirds and 1.73 from Cardiff Draconians. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 38%, against 42%, 23% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Trethomas Bluebirds (green) and Cardiff Draconians (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trethomas Bluebirds | LWLDD | 2.00 | 2.30 | 90% | 80% |
| Cardiff Draconians | WDDLW | 1.80 | 1.60 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 1.37 |
| Double Chance 1X | 66% | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| Trethomas Bluebirds Win | 41% | 2.10 |
| Trethomas Bluebirds HT & FT | 32% | 2.88 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Trethomas Bluebirds form and statistics
- Cardiff Draconians form and statistics
- FAW Championship statistics
Other FAW Championship matches that day
- Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals - llanelli AFC vs Afan Lido · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Newport City vs Pontypridd Town · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.46