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FAW Championship · Wales
llanelli AFC vs Afan Lido prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
llanelli AFC host Afan Lido in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, llanelli AFC had won 0, drawn 1 and lost 9 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 34. Afan Lido had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of llanelli AFC's last 10 and 5 of Afan Lido's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home llanelli AFC averaged 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Afan Lido averaged 1.00 scored and 2.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from llanelli AFC and 3.08 from Afan Lido. From that it rates a home win at 8%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 79%, against 26%, 22% and 52% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between llanelli AFC (green) and Afan Lido (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| llanelli AFC | LLLLL | 0.70 | 3.40 | 40% | 80% |
| Afan Lido | LDLDW | 1.30 | 2.00 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Afan Lido Win | 53% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 53% | 1.72 |
| Afan Lido HT & FT | 35% | 2.62 |
| 1-2 | 9% | 10.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FAW Championship matches that day
- Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cardiff Draconians · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals - Newport City vs Pontypridd Town · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.46