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FAW Championship · Wales
Newport City vs Pontypridd Town prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Newport City host Pontypridd Town in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.46, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Newport City had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 18. Pontypridd Town had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Newport City's last 10 and 9 of Pontypridd Town's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Newport City averaged 0.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Pontypridd Town averaged 2.67 scored and 1.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.57 goals from Newport City and 2.15 from Pontypridd Town. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 50%, against 39%, 24% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Newport City (green) and Pontypridd Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport City | WLDDL | 1.70 | 1.80 | 50% | 60% |
| Pontypridd Town | DWLWL | 2.40 | 1.70 | 90% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.26 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.46 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.38 |
| Newport City Win | 39% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FAW Championship matches that day
- Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cardiff Draconians · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals - llanelli AFC vs Afan Lido · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.40