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FAW Championship · Wales
Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Caerau (Ely) host Llantwit Major in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Caerau (Ely) had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 14. Llantwit Major had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 25 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Caerau (Ely)'s last 10 and 6 of Llantwit Major's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Caerau (Ely) averaged 2.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Llantwit Major averaged 1.00 scored and 3.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.69 goals from Caerau (Ely) and 0.90 from Llantwit Major. From that it rates a home win at 75%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 9%, against 69%, 17% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Caerau (Ely) (green) and Llantwit Major (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | WWWWW | 2.50 | 1.40 | 60% | 70% |
| Llantwit Major | LDLWW | 0.90 | 2.50 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.22 |
| Caerau (Ely) Win | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 67% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
| Caerau (Ely) 1st Half Win | 54% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 53% | 1.77 |
| Caerau (Ely) HT & FT | 52% | 1.80 |
| 3-0 | 11% | 8.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FAW Championship matches that day
- Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cardiff Draconians · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals - llanelli AFC vs Afan Lido · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Newport City vs Pontypridd Town · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.46