Home › League stats › Bundesliga › Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga · Germany
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Werder Bremen host SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07.
Going into the match, Werder Bremen had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 15. SC Paderborn 07 had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Werder Bremen's last 10 and 4 of SC Paderborn 07's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Werder Bremen averaged 1.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home SC Paderborn 07 averaged 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.76 goals from Werder Bremen and 1.09 from SC Paderborn 07. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 22%, against 54%, 23% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Werder Bremen (green) and SC Paderborn 07 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | DWDWL | 2.10 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | LWWLL | 1.50 | 1.20 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 Aug 2026 · Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Werder Bremen Win | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Bundesliga matches that day
- Bayern München vs RB Leipzig · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Bayern München Win @ 1.22 - Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 0–1 - SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40