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Bundesliga · Germany
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Schalke 04 host FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05.
Going into the match, FC Schalke 04 had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 16. FSV Mainz 05 had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 34 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of FC Schalke 04's last 10 and 5 of FSV Mainz 05's last 10; 7 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Schalke 04 averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 8 matches; away from home FSV Mainz 05 averaged 4.55 scored and 1.09 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.34 goals from FC Schalke 04 and 1.75 from FSV Mainz 05. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 46%, against 32%, 26% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Schalke 04 (green) and FSV Mainz 05 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | LWWDW | 1.20 | 1.60 | 40% | 70% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | LWWLW | 3.40 | 1.40 | 50% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 80% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Bundesliga matches that day
- Bayern München vs RB Leipzig · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Bayern München Win @ 1.22 - Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–2 - SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40