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Bundesliga · Germany
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart.
Going into the match, Hamburger SV had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 20. VfB Stuttgart had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 26 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Hamburger SV's last 10 and 4 of VfB Stuttgart's last 10; 8 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hamburger SV averaged 1.57 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home VfB Stuttgart averaged 2.92 scored and 1.62 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from Hamburger SV and 1.80 from VfB Stuttgart. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 46%, against 24%, 22% and 54% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hamburger SV (green) and VfB Stuttgart (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | WWWLL | 1.50 | 2.00 | 50% | 80% |
| VfB Stuttgart | WWWWL | 2.60 | 1.00 | 40% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SV
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 1.40 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| VfB Stuttgart Win | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Bundesliga matches that day
- Bayern München vs RB Leipzig · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Bayern München Win @ 1.22 - Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–2 - FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 0–1 - SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40