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Bundesliga · Germany
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Union Berlin host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia Dortmund.
Going into the match, Union Berlin had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 27. Borussia Dortmund had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Union Berlin's last 10 and 5 of Borussia Dortmund's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Union Berlin averaged 2.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Borussia Dortmund averaged 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from Union Berlin and 1.82 from Borussia Dortmund. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 49%, against 17%, 23% and 60% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Union Berlin (green) and Borussia Dortmund (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | WWLLL | 1.70 | 2.70 | 60% | 80% |
| Borussia Dortmund | LDWWW | 2.20 | 1.10 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.57 |
| Borussia Dortmund Win | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Bundesliga matches that day
- Bayern München vs RB Leipzig · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Bayern München Win @ 1.22 - Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–2 - FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 0–1 - SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40