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Bundesliga · Germany
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bayern München host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Bayern München Win — Bayern München to win. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bayern München 6–1 RB Leipzig.
Going into the match, Bayern München had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 34 and conceding 11. RB Leipzig had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Bayern München's last 10 and 3 of RB Leipzig's last 10; 9 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bayern München averaged 3.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home RB Leipzig averaged 1.55 scored and 2.45 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.39 goals from Bayern München and 1.21 from RB Leipzig. From that it rates a home win at 78%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 9%, against 77%, 13% and 10% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bayern München (green) and RB Leipzig (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | DDWWW | 3.40 | 1.10 | 70% | 90% |
| RB Leipzig | WWLWL | 2.40 | 1.40 | 30% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 15 Aug 2026 · Bayern München 3–1 RB Leipzig
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München Win | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS Yes | 69% | 1.36 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Bayern München 1st Half Win | 61% | 1.50 |
| Bayern München HT & FT | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Bundesliga matches that day
- Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–2 - FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 0–1 - SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40