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Primera Nacional · Argentina
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tristan Suarez host Patronato in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 17 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Tristan Suarez Win — Tristan Suarez to win. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tristan Suarez 1–0 Patronato.
Going into the match, Tristan Suarez had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 3. Patronato had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Tristan Suarez's last 10 and 2 of Patronato's last 10; 2 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tristan Suarez averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.42 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Patronato averaged 0.58 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.20 goals from Tristan Suarez and 0.40 from Patronato. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 11%, against 55%, 29% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tristan Suarez (green) and Patronato (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Suarez | DDWDD | 0.90 | 0.30 | 20% | 20% |
| Patronato | WLWDD | 1.10 | 0.90 | 20% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 31 May 2026 · Patronato 1–1 Tristan Suarez
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.36 |
| BTTS No | 65% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Tristan Suarez Win | 55% | 1.67 |
| Tristan Suarez HT & FT | 31% | 3.10 |
| 1-0 | 22% | 4.33 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera Nacional matches that day
- Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn · 17 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Primera Nacional
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 0–0 - San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar · 17 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Primera Nacional
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - Agropecuario vs Colegiales · 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Primera Nacional
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.48 - Chacarita Juniors vs Deportivo Maipu · 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Primera Nacional
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 - Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta · 17 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Primera Nacional
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.28 - Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes · 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Primera Nacional
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–0