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Primera Nacional · Argentina
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico DE Rafaela host Quilmes in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Quilmes.
Going into the match, Atletico DE Rafaela had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 15. Quilmes had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Atletico DE Rafaela's last 10 and 1 of Quilmes's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico DE Rafaela averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Quilmes averaged 0.67 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.95 goals from Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.70 from Quilmes. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 25%, against 38%, 33% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico DE Rafaela (green) and Quilmes (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico DE Rafaela | LLLWL | 1.00 | 1.50 | 40% | 50% |
| Quilmes | LDWLW | 0.70 | 0.80 | 10% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 31 May 2026 · Quilmes 2–0 Atletico DE Rafaela
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 70% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 64% | 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 57% | 1.62 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 40% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera Nacional matches that day
- Tristan Suarez vs Patronato · 17 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC · Primera Nacional
Published pick: Tristan Suarez Win @ 1.67 · FT 1–0 - Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn · 17 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Primera Nacional
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 0–0 - San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar · 17 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Primera Nacional
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - Agropecuario vs Colegiales · 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Primera Nacional
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.48 - Chacarita Juniors vs Deportivo Maipu · 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Primera Nacional
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22