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Championship · England
Southampton vs Bolton prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Southampton host Bolton in the Championship (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Southampton 0–0 Bolton.
Going into the match, Southampton had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 12. Bolton had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Southampton's last 10 and 6 of Bolton's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Southampton averaged 2.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Bolton averaged 1.33 scored and 1.58 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.61 goals from Southampton and 0.94 from Bolton. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 21%, against 64%, 20% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 47%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Southampton (green) and Bolton (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | WWLWW | 2.10 | 1.20 | 80% | 60% |
| Bolton | WLWWL | 1.50 | 1.80 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Southampton Win | 64% | 1.48 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 46% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Championship matches that day
- Birmingham vs QPR · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 3–0 - Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Derby vs Stoke City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 0–1 - Norwich vs Portsmouth · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Swansea vs West Ham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - West Brom vs Blackburn · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 · FT 3–2 - Wrexham vs Preston · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Wrexham Win @ 1.67 · FT 4–1 - Middlesbrough vs Cardiff · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 2–2 - Millwall vs Lincoln · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Millwall Win @ 1.57 · FT 2–2 - Watford vs Charlton · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 2–0