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Championship · England
Birmingham vs QPR prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Birmingham host QPR in the Championship (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Birmingham 3–0 QPR.
Going into the match, Birmingham had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 17. QPR had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Birmingham's last 10 and 7 of QPR's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Birmingham averaged 2.09 goals scored and 1.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home QPR averaged 1.82 scored and 1.09 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.52 goals from Birmingham and 1.08 from QPR. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 26%, against 48%, 27% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Birmingham (green) and QPR (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | WWDWL | 1.80 | 1.70 | 80% | 80% |
| QPR | WDDDD | 1.50 | 0.90 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Championship matches that day
- Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Derby vs Stoke City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 0–1 - Norwich vs Portsmouth · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Southampton vs Bolton · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–0 - Swansea vs West Ham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - West Brom vs Blackburn · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 · FT 3–2 - Wrexham vs Preston · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Wrexham Win @ 1.67 · FT 4–1 - Middlesbrough vs Cardiff · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 2–2 - Millwall vs Lincoln · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Millwall Win @ 1.57 · FT 2–2 - Watford vs Charlton · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 2–0