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Championship · England
Derby vs Stoke City prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Derby host Stoke City in the Championship (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Derby 0–1 Stoke City.
Going into the match, Derby had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 19. Stoke City had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Derby's last 10 and 8 of Stoke City's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Derby averaged 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Stoke City averaged 1.00 scored and 1.88 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.95 goals from Derby and 1.49 from Stoke City. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 49%, against 32%, 28% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Derby (green) and Stoke City (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | LDDLL | 0.90 | 1.90 | 60% | 60% |
| Stoke City | LWWWD | 1.70 | 1.50 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Championship matches that day
- Birmingham vs QPR · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 3–0 - Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Norwich vs Portsmouth · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Southampton vs Bolton · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–0 - Swansea vs West Ham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - West Brom vs Blackburn · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 · FT 3–2 - Wrexham vs Preston · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Wrexham Win @ 1.67 · FT 4–1 - Middlesbrough vs Cardiff · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 2–2 - Millwall vs Lincoln · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Millwall Win @ 1.57 · FT 2–2 - Watford vs Charlton · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 2–0