Home › League stats › Serie A › Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama
Serie A · Brazil
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sao Paulo host Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A (Brazil) on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sao Paulo 1–0 Vasco DA Gama.
Going into the match, Sao Paulo had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Vasco DA Gama had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 4 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Sao Paulo's last 10 and 3 of Vasco DA Gama's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sao Paulo averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.81 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Vasco DA Gama averaged 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded across 20.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.96 goals from Sao Paulo and 1.04 from Vasco DA Gama. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 35%, against 46%, 28% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sao Paulo (green) and Vasco DA Gama (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | WLLWD | 0.90 | 1.10 | 40% | 30% |
| Vasco DA Gama | WDWWW | 1.70 | 0.40 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Sao Paulo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.91 |
| Sao Paulo Win | 46% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Fluminense vs Santos · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.30 - Gremio vs Cruzeiro · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–4 - Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras · 17 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 0–2 - Atletico-MG vs Coritiba · 17 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc · 17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–0