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Serie A · Brazil
Fluminense vs Santos prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fluminense host Santos in the Serie A (Brazil) on 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fluminense 1–2 Santos.
Going into the match, Fluminense had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 13. Santos had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Fluminense's last 10 and 7 of Santos's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fluminense averaged 1.90 goals scored and 1.05 conceded across 20 matches; away from home Santos averaged 1.53 scored and 1.32 conceded across 19.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.63 goals from Fluminense and 1.37 from Santos. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 31%, against 40%, 28% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fluminense (green) and Santos (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | LLWWL | 1.80 | 1.30 | 60% | 70% |
| Santos | LDWWL | 1.70 | 1.30 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Santos 2–3 Fluminense
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Gremio vs Cruzeiro · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–4 - Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama · 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras · 17 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 0–2 - Atletico-MG vs Coritiba · 17 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc · 17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–0