Home › League stats › Serie A › Gremio vs Cruzeiro
Serie A · Brazil
Gremio vs Cruzeiro prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gremio host Cruzeiro in the Serie A (Brazil) on 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gremio 2–4 Cruzeiro.
Going into the match, Gremio had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 11. Cruzeiro had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Gremio's last 10 and 9 of Cruzeiro's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gremio averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 19 matches; away from home Cruzeiro averaged 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from Gremio and 1.49 from Cruzeiro. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 41%, against 34%, 28% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gremio (green) and Cruzeiro (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Jul 2026 · Gremio 3–1 Cruzeiro
- 19 Apr 2026 · Cruzeiro 2–0 Gremio
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Fluminense vs Santos · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.30 - Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama · 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras · 17 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 0–2 - Atletico-MG vs Coritiba · 17 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc · 17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–0