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Serie A · Brazil
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico-MG host Coritiba in the Serie A (Brazil) on 17 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba.
Going into the match, Atletico-MG had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 12. Coritiba had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Atletico-MG's last 10 and 7 of Coritiba's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico-MG averaged 1.84 goals scored and 0.95 conceded across 19 matches; away from home Coritiba averaged 0.91 scored and 2.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.25 goals from Atletico-MG and 0.83 from Coritiba. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 12%, against 62%, 24% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico-MG (green) and Coritiba (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | WWDWD | 1.80 | 1.20 | 60% | 60% |
| Coritiba | DLLDL | 1.30 | 2.10 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Coritiba 2–0 Atletico-MG
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Atletico-MG Win | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Fluminense vs Santos · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.30 - Gremio vs Cruzeiro · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–4 - Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama · 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras · 17 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 0–2 - Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc · 17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–0