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Serie A · Brazil
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Paranaense host Palmeiras in the Serie A (Brazil) on 17 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Palmeiras.
Going into the match, Atletico Paranaense had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 20. Palmeiras had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Atletico Paranaense's last 10 and 4 of Palmeiras's last 10; 8 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Paranaense averaged 1.58 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Palmeiras averaged 1.58 scored and 0.84 conceded across 19.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.07 goals from Atletico Paranaense and 1.58 from Palmeiras. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 48%, against 33%, 28% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Paranaense (green) and Palmeiras (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | WDWDL | 2.10 | 2.00 | 80% | 80% |
| Palmeiras | WWWDL | 1.30 | 0.60 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 20 Apr 2026 · Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico Paranaense
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Fluminense vs Santos · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.30 - Gremio vs Cruzeiro · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–4 - Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama · 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Atletico-MG vs Coritiba · 17 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc · 17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–0