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Serie A · Brazil
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Botafogo host Chapecoense-sc in the Serie A (Brazil) on 17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Botafogo 1–0 Chapecoense-sc.
Going into the match, Botafogo had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 15. Chapecoense-sc had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Botafogo's last 10 and 8 of Chapecoense-sc's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Botafogo averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.12 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Chapecoense-sc averaged 0.85 scored and 1.60 conceded across 20.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.60 goals from Botafogo and 1.02 from Chapecoense-sc. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 23%, against 71%, 19% and 10% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Botafogo (green) and Chapecoense-sc (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | DLLWD | 0.90 | 1.50 | 50% | 40% |
| Chapecoense-sc | LLDDL | 1.20 | 2.10 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 15 May 2026 · Chapecoense-sc 2–0 Botafogo
- 21 Apr 2026 · Botafogo 1–0 Chapecoense-sc
- 19 Apr 2026 · Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Botafogo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Botafogo Win | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Fluminense vs Santos · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.30 - Gremio vs Cruzeiro · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–4 - Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama · 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras · 17 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 0–2 - Atletico-MG vs Coritiba · 17 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40