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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Real Avilés vs UD Logroñés prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Avilés host UD Logroñés in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Real Avilés had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 12. UD Logroñés had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Real Avilés's last 10 and 7 of UD Logroñés's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Avilés averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.63 conceded across 8 matches; away from home UD Logroñés averaged 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.35 goals from Real Avilés and 1.98 from UD Logroñés. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 51%, against 31%, 27% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Avilés | WWLDD | 2.00 | 1.20 | 60% | 60% |
| UD Logroñés | DLWWD | 2.50 | 1.10 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Real Avilés form and statistics
- UD Logroñés form and statistics
- Primera División RFEF - Group 1 statistics
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Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30