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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ponferradina host Barakaldo in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Ponferradina had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Barakaldo had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Ponferradina's last 10 and 4 of Barakaldo's last 10; 3 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ponferradina averaged 0.92 goals scored and 0.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Barakaldo averaged 0.71 scored and 1.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.02 goals from Ponferradina and 0.74 from Barakaldo. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 36% and an away win at 25%, against 43%, 30% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina | DLWDW | 1.10 | 0.80 | 40% | 30% |
| Barakaldo | WLDDL | 0.90 | 1.30 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Ponferradina 1–0 Barakaldo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.67 |
| Ponferradina Win | 43% | 2.10 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 39% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Ponferradina form and statistics
- Barakaldo form and statistics
- Primera División RFEF - Group 1 statistics
Other Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches that day
- Cultural Leonesa vs Pontevedra · 24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Cacereño vs Zamora · 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Real Avilés vs UD Logroñés · 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - Unionistas de Salamanca vs Athletic Club II · 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - Mirandes vs Racing Ferrol · 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Arenas Getxo vs UD Ourense · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Deportivo La Coruña II vs Extremadura 1924 · 24 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30