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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Arenas Getxo vs UD Ourense prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arenas Getxo host UD Ourense in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Arenas Getxo had won 0, drawn 2 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 28. UD Ourense had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Arenas Getxo's last 10 and 2 of UD Ourense's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arenas Getxo averaged 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home UD Ourense averaged 0.88 scored and 1.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.93 goals from Arenas Getxo and 1.41 from UD Ourense. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 47%, against 43%, 27% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas Getxo | LLDLL | 0.50 | 2.80 | 50% | 70% |
| UD Ourense | LWDDL | 0.60 | 1.30 | 20% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 2.00 |
| Arenas Getxo Win | 43% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Arenas Getxo form and statistics
- UD Ourense form and statistics
- Primera División RFEF - Group 1 statistics
Other Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches that day
- Cultural Leonesa vs Pontevedra · 24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Cacereño vs Zamora · 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
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Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Real Avilés vs UD Logroñés · 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - Unionistas de Salamanca vs Athletic Club II · 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Mirandes vs Racing Ferrol · 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Deportivo La Coruña II vs Extremadura 1924 · 24 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30