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Serie B · Italy
Padova vs Virtus Entella prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Padova host Virtus Entella in the Serie B (Italy) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Padova 1–2 Virtus Entella.
Going into the match, Padova had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 15. Virtus Entella had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Padova's last 10 and 6 of Virtus Entella's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Padova averaged 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Virtus Entella averaged 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.28 goals from Padova and 1.33 from Virtus Entella. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 37%, against 39%, 31% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Padova (green) and Virtus Entella (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | LLWLD | 1.10 | 1.50 | 50% | 40% |
| Virtus Entella | DDWDL | 1.20 | 1.20 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Apr 2026 · Virtus Entella 1–0 Padova
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 1X | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie B matches that day
- Pisa vs Cremonese · 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 3–1 - Mantova vs Palermo · 17 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–2 - Ascoli vs Empoli · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–2 - Carrarese vs Modena · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25 · FT 2–1