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Serie B · Italy
Carrarese vs Modena prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Carrarese host Modena in the Serie B (Italy) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Carrarese 2–1 Modena.
Going into the match, Carrarese had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Modena had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Carrarese's last 10 and 5 of Modena's last 10; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Carrarese averaged 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Modena averaged 1.20 scored and 1.10 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.75 goals from Carrarese and 0.91 from Modena. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 36%, against 21%, 27% and 52% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Carrarese (green) and Modena (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Modena Win | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie B matches that day
- Pisa vs Cremonese · 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 3–1 - Mantova vs Palermo · 17 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–2 - Ascoli vs Empoli · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–2 - Padova vs Virtus Entella · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–2