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Serie B · Italy
Ascoli vs Empoli prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ascoli host Empoli in the Serie B (Italy) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ascoli 1–1 Empoli.
Going into the match, Ascoli had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Empoli had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Ascoli's last 10 and 6 of Empoli's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ascoli averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.56 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Empoli averaged 0.88 scored and 1.50 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.19 goals from Ascoli and 0.76 from Empoli. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 22%, against 49%, 28% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 87%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ascoli (green) and Empoli (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie B matches that day
- Pisa vs Cremonese · 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 3–1 - Mantova vs Palermo · 17 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–2 - Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–2 - Carrarese vs Modena · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25 · FT 2–1 - Padova vs Virtus Entella · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–2