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First NL · Croatia
Mladost Ždralovi vs Jadran LP prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Mladost Ždralovi host Jadran LP in the First NL (Croatia) on 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Jadran LP to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Mladost Ždralovi had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Jadran LP had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Mladost Ždralovi's last 10 and 7 of Jadran LP's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mladost Ždralovi averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Jadran LP averaged 2.56 scored and 1.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.47 goals from Mladost Ždralovi and 1.45 from Jadran LP. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 36%, against 38%, 28% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Mladost Ždralovi (green) and Jadran LP (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mladost Ždralovi | LWLLW | 1.10 | 1.20 | 60% | 50% |
| Jadran LP | DDLWW | 1.80 | 1.40 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 Apr 2026 · Mladost Ždralovi 0–0 Jadran LP
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First NL matches that day
- Dubrava Zagreb vs Kustosija · 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Dinamo Zagreb U21 vs HNK Cibalia · 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 - Sesvete vs Hrvace · 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.65