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First NL · Croatia
Dubrava Zagreb vs Kustosija prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Dubrava Zagreb host Kustosija in the First NL (Croatia) on 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Dubrava Zagreb had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 13. Kustosija had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Dubrava Zagreb's last 10 and 5 of Kustosija's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Dubrava Zagreb averaged 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Kustosija averaged 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from Dubrava Zagreb and 1.08 from Kustosija. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 40%, against 36%, 28% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Dubrava Zagreb (green) and Kustosija (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubrava Zagreb | WLLWD | 1.00 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
| Kustosija | WDLWL | 0.90 | 0.90 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Jul 2026 · Dubrava Zagreb 0–1 Kustosija
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First NL matches that day
- Mladost Ždralovi vs Jadran LP · 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.44 - Dinamo Zagreb U21 vs HNK Cibalia · 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 - Sesvete vs Hrvace · 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.65