Home › League stats › J3 League › Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma
J3 League · Japan
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Matsumoto Yamaga host Thespakusatsu Gunma in the J3 League (Japan) on 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.68, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Matsumoto Yamaga 2–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma.
Going into the match, Matsumoto Yamaga had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Thespakusatsu Gunma had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Matsumoto Yamaga's last 10 and 7 of Thespakusatsu Gunma's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Matsumoto Yamaga averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Thespakusatsu Gunma averaged 1.23 scored and 2.08 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.66 goals from Matsumoto Yamaga and 0.91 from Thespakusatsu Gunma. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 19%, against 50%, 26% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Matsumoto Yamaga (green) and Thespakusatsu Gunma (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga | LLWLW | 0.90 | 1.10 | 40% | 40% |
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | DWLLW | 1.00 | 1.80 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.46 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.68 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga Win | 52% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J3 League matches that day
- Ehime FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 2–1 - FC Gifu vs Sagamihara · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.58 · FT 2–1 - Kagoshima United vs Kochi United · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: Kagoshima United Win @ 1.53 · FT 3–1 - Kamatamare Sanuki vs Kanazawa · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.60 · FT 3–1 - Roasso Kumamoto vs Gainare Tottori · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 · FT 3–0 - Osaka vs Nara Club · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.52 · FT 2–0 - Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu · 21 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - Parceiro Nagano vs FC Ryukyu · 21 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.58 · FT 0–1 - Tochigi SC vs Biwako Shiga · 21 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.63 · FT 1–0