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III Liga - Group 2 · Poland
Lipno Stęszew vs Kalisz prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lipno Stęszew host Kalisz in the III Liga - Group 2 (Poland) on 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Lipno Stęszew had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 23. Kalisz had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Lipno Stęszew's last 10 and 7 of Kalisz's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lipno Stęszew averaged 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Kalisz averaged 0.93 scored and 2.21 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.80 goals from Lipno Stęszew and 1.43 from Kalisz. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 30%, against 24%, 26% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lipno Stęszew (green) and Kalisz (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lipno Stęszew | WLDWL | 1.30 | 2.30 | 80% | 70% |
| Kalisz | LLWDD | 1.60 | 1.90 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.48 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.67 |
| Kalisz Win | 50% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other III Liga - Group 2 matches that day
- Elana Toruń vs Kotwica Kórnik · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 2
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Kluczevia Stargard vs Luzino · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 2
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.42 · FT 3–2 - Noteć Czarnków vs Bałtyk Koszalin · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 2
Published pick: Double Chance 1X - Unia Swarzędz vs Victoria Września · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 2
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60 - Gedania Gdansk vs Stargard Szczeciński · 17 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 2
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–2 - Grom Nowy Staw vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 17 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 2
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–0