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Ligue 3 · France
La Roche VF vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 prediction and preview
31 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC · Stade Henri-Desgranges, La Roche-sur-Yon
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
La Roche VF host Bourg-en-bresse 01 in the Ligue 3 (France) on 31 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, La Roche VF had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 10. Bourg-en-bresse 01 had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of La Roche VF's last 10 and 3 of Bourg-en-bresse 01's last 10; 5 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home La Roche VF averaged 2.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Bourg-en-bresse 01 averaged 0.33 scored and 1.50 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.88 goals from La Roche VF and 0.42 from Bourg-en-bresse 01. From that it rates a home win at 72%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 7%, against 54%, 24% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between La Roche VF (green) and Bourg-en-bresse 01 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Roche VF | LWWWD | 1.60 | 1.00 | 70% | 50% |
| Bourg-en-bresse 01 | LLDDL | 0.50 | 1.60 | 30% | 10% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| La Roche VF Win | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| BTTS No | 49% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 3 matches that day
- Bastia vs Quevilly · 31 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Cannes vs Valenciennes · 31 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Fleury 91 vs Gobelins · 31 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Le Puy Foot vs Caen · 31 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.20 - Orleans vs Villefranche · 31 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Orleans Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.20 - Rouen vs Concarneau · 31 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 - Versailles vs Aubagne · 31 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36