Home › League stats › Second League › Hebar 1918 vs Nesebar
Second League · Bulgaria
Hebar 1918 vs Nesebar prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hebar 1918 host Nesebar in the Second League (Bulgaria) on 23 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Hebar 1918 Win — Hebar 1918 to win. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Hebar 1918 had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 10. Nesebar had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Hebar 1918's last 10 and 5 of Nesebar's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hebar 1918 averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Nesebar averaged 1.46 scored and 1.08 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.88 goals from Hebar 1918 and 1.54 from Nesebar. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 31%, against 61%, 22% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 45%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hebar 1918 (green) and Nesebar (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hebar 1918 | WWWLW | 2.70 | 1.00 | 70% | 70% |
| Nesebar | LDDLW | 1.60 | 1.20 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.26 |
| Hebar 1918 Win | 62% | 1.48 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.48 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Hebar 1918 HT & FT | 42% | 2.20 |
| 2-0 | 12% | 7.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Second League matches that day
- Beroe vs Rilski Sportist · 23 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Second League
Published pick: Beroe Win @ 1.57 - Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 23 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Second League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 - Spartak Pleven vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo · 23 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Second League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 - Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Sportist Svoge · 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Second League
Published pick: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Win @ 1.20 - CSKA Sofia II vs Yantra 2019 · 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Second League
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 - Vihren vs Marek · 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Second League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67