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Liga MX · Mexico
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 23:07 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Guadalajara Chivas host Tigres UANL in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 17 Oct 2026, 23:07 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Tigres UANL.
Going into the match, Guadalajara Chivas had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 9. Tigres UANL had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Guadalajara Chivas's last 10 and 4 of Tigres UANL's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Guadalajara Chivas averaged 1.73 goals scored and 0.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Tigres UANL averaged 0.58 scored and 1.33 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.22 goals from Guadalajara Chivas and 0.70 from Tigres UANL. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 20%, against 51%, 25% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 87%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Guadalajara Chivas (green) and Tigres UANL (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | DWLDW | 2.00 | 0.90 | 50% | 50% |
| Tigres UANL | WWLDD | 0.90 | 0.80 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 May 2026 · Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Tigres UANL
- 3 May 2026 · Tigres UANL 3–1 Guadalajara Chivas
- 12 Apr 2026 · Tigres UANL 4–1 Guadalajara Chivas
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga MX matches that day
- Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez · 18 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 5–0 - Leon vs Club America · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Toluca vs Atletico San Luis · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44