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Liga MX · Mexico
Leon vs Club America prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Leon host Club America in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Leon 3–5 Club America.
Going into the match, Leon had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 9. Club America had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Leon's last 10 and 6 of Club America's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Leon averaged 2.42 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Club America averaged 1.58 scored and 1.42 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from Leon and 1.68 from Club America. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 36%, against 28%, 27% and 45% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Leon (green) and Club America (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | DWDWL | 1.40 | 0.90 | 50% | 30% |
| Club America | DLWDL | 1.80 | 1.50 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 7 Sep 2026 · Leon 1–0 Club America
- 22 Apr 2026 · Leon 2–3 Club America
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga MX matches that day
- Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez · 18 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 5–0 - Toluca vs Atletico San Luis · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL · 17 Oct 2026, 23:07 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44