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Liga MX · Mexico
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Toluca host Atletico San Luis in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis.
Going into the match, Toluca had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 13. Atletico San Luis had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Toluca's last 10 and 7 of Atletico San Luis's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Toluca averaged 2.28 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Atletico San Luis averaged 1.50 scored and 2.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.02 goals from Toluca and 1.47 from Atletico San Luis. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 27%, against 71%, 17% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Toluca (green) and Atletico San Luis (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | LLDLW | 2.40 | 1.30 | 50% | 60% |
| Atletico San Luis | LWWLL | 1.40 | 2.10 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Apr 2026 · Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Toluca Win | 71% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Toluca HT & FT | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 48% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga MX matches that day
- Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez · 18 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 5–0 - Leon vs Club America · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL · 17 Oct 2026, 23:07 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44