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Premier League · Wales
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Colwyn Bay host Cardiff MET in the Premier League (Wales) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Colwyn Bay had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 12. Cardiff MET had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Colwyn Bay's last 10 and 4 of Cardiff MET's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Colwyn Bay averaged 1.82 goals scored and 0.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Cardiff MET averaged 1.63 scored and 0.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.24 goals from Colwyn Bay and 1.19 from Cardiff MET. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 34%, against 57%, 24% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Colwyn Bay (green) and Cardiff MET (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colwyn Bay | DWLWW | 1.90 | 1.20 | 40% | 50% |
| Cardiff MET | WLWWD | 2.00 | 0.90 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Colwyn Bay Win | 56% | 1.57 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier League matches that day
- Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Cambrian & Clydach vs Airbus UK · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Holywell vs Penybont · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS No - Trefelin vs Flint Town United · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50