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Premier League · Wales
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Caernarfon Town host Briton Ferry in the Premier League (Wales) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Caernarfon Town had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 32 and conceding 13. Briton Ferry had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Caernarfon Town's last 10 and 6 of Briton Ferry's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Caernarfon Town averaged 2.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Briton Ferry averaged 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.10 goals from Caernarfon Town and 0.90 from Briton Ferry. From that it rates a home win at 80%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 7%, against 69%, 18% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Caernarfon Town (green) and Briton Ferry (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon Town | WWLDW | 3.20 | 1.30 | 70% | 80% |
| Briton Ferry | WLWDD | 1.30 | 1.90 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Caernarfon Town Win | 69% | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 55% | 1.68 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier League matches that day
- Cambrian & Clydach vs Airbus UK · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Holywell vs Penybont · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS No - Trefelin vs Flint Town United · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50