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Premier League · Wales
Holywell vs Penybont prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Holywell host Penybont in the Premier League (Wales) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Holywell had won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 32. Penybont had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Holywell's last 10 and 7 of Penybont's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Holywell averaged 1.67 goals scored and 2.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Penybont averaged 1.73 scored and 1.09 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.88 goals from Holywell and 2.95 from Penybont. From that it rates a home win at 8%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 79%, against 11%, 16% and 73% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Holywell (green) and Penybont (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Penybont Win | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Penybont 1st Half Win | 56% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier League matches that day
- Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Cambrian & Clydach vs Airbus UK · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS No - Trefelin vs Flint Town United · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50