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Premier League · Wales
Trefelin vs Flint Town United prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Trefelin host Flint Town United in the Premier League (Wales) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Trefelin had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 18. Flint Town United had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Trefelin's last 10 and 5 of Flint Town United's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Trefelin averaged 0.86 goals scored and 2.29 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Flint Town United averaged 0.78 scored and 2.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.11 goals from Trefelin and 1.61 from Flint Town United. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 48%, against 31%, 26% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Trefelin (green) and Flint Town United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trefelin | WWLLD | 1.20 | 1.80 | 70% | 60% |
| Flint Town United | LLWWL | 0.90 | 2.00 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.60 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier League matches that day
- Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Cambrian & Clydach vs Airbus UK · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Holywell vs Penybont · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS No