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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Zamora vs Ponferradina prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Zamora host Ponferradina in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 17 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Zamora 1–1 Ponferradina.
Going into the match, Zamora had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 11. Ponferradina had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Zamora's last 10 and 4 of Ponferradina's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Zamora averaged 1.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Ponferradina averaged 1.00 scored and 1.70 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.13 goals from Zamora and 0.66 from Ponferradina. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 20%, against 42%, 30% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamora | DWWLW | 1.10 | 1.10 | 50% | 40% |
| Ponferradina | LWDWL | 1.10 | 0.80 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 May 2026 · Zamora 3–0 Ponferradina
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Zamora Win | 41% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Zamora form and statistics
- Ponferradina form and statistics
- Primera División RFEF - Group 1 statistics
Other Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches that day
- Extremadura 1924 vs Real Unión · 17 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 2–2 - Barakaldo vs Mirandes · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 2–0 - Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruña II · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 3–0 - Racing Ferrol vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 1–0