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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruña II prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lugo host Deportivo La Coruña II in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lugo 3–0 Deportivo La Coruña II.
Going into the match, Lugo had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Deportivo La Coruña II had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Lugo's last 10 and 6 of Deportivo La Coruña II's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lugo averaged 1.11 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Deportivo La Coruña II averaged 1.57 scored and 1.29 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.57 goals from Lugo and 0.54 from Deportivo La Coruña II. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 12%, against 51%, 26% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo | WWWWW | 1.50 | 0.60 | 50% | 50% |
| Deportivo La Coruña II | LLWDW | 1.10 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Lugo Win | 52% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Lugo form and statistics
- Deportivo La Coruña II form and statistics
- Primera División RFEF - Group 1 statistics
Other Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches that day
- Extremadura 1924 vs Real Unión · 17 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 2–2 - Zamora vs Ponferradina · 17 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Barakaldo vs Mirandes · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 2–0 - Racing Ferrol vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 1–0