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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Barakaldo vs Mirandes prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Barakaldo host Mirandes in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Barakaldo 2–0 Mirandes.
Going into the match, Barakaldo had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 14. Mirandes had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Barakaldo's last 10 and 3 of Mirandes's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Barakaldo averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Mirandes averaged 1.15 scored and 1.69 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.09 goals from Barakaldo and 1.04 from Mirandes. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 33%, against 41%, 27% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Barakaldo Win | 39% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches that day
- Extremadura 1924 vs Real Unión · 17 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 2–2 - Zamora vs Ponferradina · 17 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruña II · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 3–0 - Racing Ferrol vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 1–0