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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Xerez host Ciudad de Lucena in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 18 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Xerez to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Xerez 0–1 Ciudad de Lucena.
Going into the match, Xerez had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Ciudad de Lucena had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Xerez's last 10 and 5 of Ciudad de Lucena's last 10; 2 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Xerez averaged 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Ciudad de Lucena averaged 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.65 goals from Xerez and 0.80 from Ciudad de Lucena. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 40% and an away win at 35%, against 46%, 28% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Xerez (green) and Ciudad de Lucena (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xerez | DWLDL | 0.60 | 0.60 | 40% | 20% |
| Ciudad de Lucena | WWWLD | 1.90 | 1.00 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.75 |
| Xerez Win | 46% | 1.95 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
| Xerez HT & FT | 29% | 3.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Xerez form and statistics
- Ciudad de Lucena form and statistics
- Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 statistics
Other Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches that day
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Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 · FT 1–0 - Don Benito vs Atlético Central · 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
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Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.30 - Antoniano vs Sevilla Atletico · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.28 · FT 3–3 - Linares Deportivo vs Recreativo Huelva · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - Marbella vs Estepona · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.25 - Tenerife II vs Mijas Las Lagunas · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Tenerife II Win @ 1.65 · FT 1–3