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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Marbella vs Estepona prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Marbella host Estepona in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Marbella 0–0 Estepona.
Going into the match, Marbella had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 20. Estepona had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Marbella's last 10 and 8 of Estepona's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Marbella averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Estepona averaged 1.83 scored and 1.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.34 goals from Marbella and 1.66 from Estepona. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 44%, against 33%, 27% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Marbella (green) and Estepona (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
| Estepona Win | 39% | 2.25 |
| 0-1 | 11% | 8.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches that day
- Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena · 18 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 · FT 0–1 - Badajoz vs Sanluqueño · 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 · FT 1–0 - Don Benito vs Atlético Central · 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 - Tamaraceite vs Real Betis II · 18 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Real Betis II Win @ 1.50 - Las Palmas II vs Puente Genil · 18 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.30 - Antoniano vs Sevilla Atletico · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.28 · FT 3–3 - Linares Deportivo vs Recreativo Huelva · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - Tenerife II vs Mijas Las Lagunas · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Tenerife II Win @ 1.65 · FT 1–3