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Premier Division · Ireland
Waterford vs Drogheda United prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Waterford host Drogheda United in the Premier Division (Ireland) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Waterford had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 11. Drogheda United had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Waterford's last 10 and 5 of Drogheda United's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Waterford averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Drogheda United averaged 1.36 scored and 1.71 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.72 goals from Waterford and 1.07 from Drogheda United. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 23%, against 51%, 25% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Waterford (green) and Drogheda United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford | WLWLD | 1.80 | 1.10 | 60% | 60% |
| Drogheda United | WLWLW | 1.50 | 1.30 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 29 May 2026 · Drogheda United 3–3 Waterford
- 18 May 2026 · Waterford 2–1 Drogheda United
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier Division matches that day
- Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers · 23 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Premier Division
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.67 - Bohemians vs Shelbourne · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier Division
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Derry City vs Dundalk · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier Division
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier Division
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40