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Premier Division · Ireland
Derry City vs Dundalk prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Derry City host Dundalk in the Premier Division (Ireland) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Derry City had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 15. Dundalk had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Derry City's last 10 and 8 of Dundalk's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Derry City averaged 1.67 goals scored and 0.93 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Dundalk averaged 1.62 scored and 1.69 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.07 goals from Derry City and 1.32 from Dundalk. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 23%, against 52%, 25% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Derry City (green) and Dundalk (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | WLWWD | 1.90 | 1.50 | 50% | 50% |
| Dundalk | DLLLD | 2.10 | 2.20 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 6 Sep 2026 · Derry City 4–2 Dundalk
- 29 May 2026 · Dundalk 2–1 Derry City
- 10 Apr 2026 · Dundalk 2–2 Derry City
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Derry City Win | 51% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier Division matches that day
- Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers · 23 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Premier Division
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.67 - Bohemians vs Shelbourne · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier Division
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier Division
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Waterford vs Drogheda United · 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier Division
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44