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First NL · Croatia
Vukovar vs Dubrava Zagreb prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vukovar host Dubrava Zagreb in the First NL (Croatia) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Vukovar to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Vukovar 2–3 Dubrava Zagreb.
Going into the match, Vukovar had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 18. Dubrava Zagreb had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Vukovar's last 10 and 6 of Dubrava Zagreb's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vukovar averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.92 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Dubrava Zagreb averaged 1.08 scored and 1.23 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.49 goals from Vukovar and 1.12 from Dubrava Zagreb. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 27%, against 39%, 29% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vukovar (green) and Dubrava Zagreb (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vukovar | WLLLW | 1.60 | 1.80 | 50% | 50% |
| Dubrava Zagreb | LLWDW | 0.80 | 1.20 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.08 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First NL matches that day
- HNK Cibalia vs Segesta Sisak · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Orijent 1919 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.25 - Hrvace vs Kustosija · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2 - Jadran LP vs Dugopolje · 17 Oct 2026, 10:45 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22