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First NL · Croatia
Jadran LP vs Dugopolje prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 10:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Jadran LP host Dugopolje in the First NL (Croatia) on 17 Oct 2026, 10:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Jadran LP to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Jadran LP 4–4 Dugopolje.
Going into the match, Jadran LP had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 10. Dugopolje had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Jadran LP's last 10 and 5 of Dugopolje's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Jadran LP averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Dugopolje averaged 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.52 goals from Jadran LP and 1.32 from Dugopolje. From that it rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 18%, against 48%, 28% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Jadran LP (green) and Dugopolje (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 49% | 1.80 |
| Jadran LP Win | 48% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First NL matches that day
- HNK Cibalia vs Segesta Sisak · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Orijent 1919 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.25 - Vukovar vs Dubrava Zagreb · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.36 - Hrvace vs Kustosija · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2