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First NL · Croatia
Hrvace vs Kustosija prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hrvace host Kustosija in the First NL (Croatia) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hrvace 1–2 Kustosija.
Going into the match, Hrvace had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 18. Kustosija had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Hrvace's last 10 and 5 of Kustosija's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hrvace averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Kustosija averaged 1.09 scored and 1.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.78 goals from Hrvace and 1.43 from Kustosija. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 51%, against 42%, 28% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hrvace (green) and Kustosija (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.73 |
| Hrvace Win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First NL matches that day
- HNK Cibalia vs Segesta Sisak · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Orijent 1919 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.25 - Vukovar vs Dubrava Zagreb · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.36 - Jadran LP vs Dugopolje · 17 Oct 2026, 10:45 UTC · First NL
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22